Can Obama turn S.C. blue?

By Lindsay Brasington, Derek Lampe and Tsuyoshi Inajima
Edited by Monique Cunin

Change -- the central message of Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama - could be the factor that pushed over 280,000 18- to 24-year-old South Carolinians to register to vote.

Should Obama win S.C. today, making him the first Democrat in 32 years to do so, he would need almost every one of those 280,000 votes.

But the impact of the youth vote has been overstated in the past, according to studies by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin. He is also an expert on voting and elections.

"For young people to turn out, you need two things: an overwhelmingly important issue and a very exciting candidate," said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political science professor.

"We have both of these things in this election," he said.

The Iraq war, the economy and disillusionment with Bush administration policies are issues that make Obama's message of change appeal to many younger voters, Huffmon said.

For Obama to have a realistic chance at winning South Carolina, where a recent Winthrop University and ETV poll shows Republican Sen. John McCain leading by 20 percentage points, the Democrat will need a huge voter turnout from young voters.

In January's South Carolina Democratic primary, 67 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted for Obama, according to the Pew Research Center.

The Pew Research Center and S.C. Election Commission use different age ranges to define the youth vote.

"It's phenomenal that we have someone running on our ticket not only who is young - you know I don't think he's even 50 yet - not only that, but he looks more like our generation," said Keiana Page, South Carolina Democratic Party spokeswoman.

Obama, the first African-American nominated by a major party for president, is 47.

"Our generation-I would hate to kind of discredit older people-but to our generation, you know, race really isn't a big issue, so for us to have someone young who looks like who we are today as a country, that's just an incredible thing," said Page, 30.

Younger voters are typically drawn to younger candidates, said Stephen Wainscott, a Clemson University political science professor.

"McCain does not have the charisma in terms of the maverick style of Obama," Wainscott said.

Two and a half weeks before the election, the S.C. Democratic Party headquarters on Hampton Street was bustling with people. Young volunteers were not discouraged that a Democratic presidential nominee hasn't won in South Carolina since 1976, when Georgia peanut farmer Jimmy Carter was elected president.

"We need a change - it's time for a change," said Dinkquana Cancer, a 29-year-old from Columbia. The Obama campaign volunteer will vote in her first presidential election this year.

Cancer cited the need for change when asked why she has not participated in previous elections.

But these eager young voters may not be enough to swing the traditionally conservative state from red to blue.

It is "highly improbable" that South Carolina will vote Democratic this year though it may be closer than before, said Kenny Whitby, a University of South Carolina political science professor.

"South Carolina is arguably the most conservative state, at least at the federal level," Whitby said. "To turn the state from red to blue would certainly be improbable. But anything is possible."

Brandon Parnell, a 19-year-old Obama supporter who works part time at Midtown at Forest Acres' TGI Friday's, said he thinks the economic situation will help Obama win South Carolina.

Parnell said, "It's hard to find a job. I know how hard that is."

Neal Thigpen, a Francis Marion retired political science professor, said it is unlikely that South Carolina will vote Democratic this year,

"For South Carolina to go blue, it seems to me that it has to be part of huge national landslide. And I don't think that's going to happen," Thigpen said.

Wainscott said, "If I see that South Carolina has gone blue, I will probably turn off my television and go to bed."

"If Obama wins South Carolina, he's won, the election is over."