Generation Vote: Millennials look to prove stereotypes wrong

By Tom Benning
Contributions by Alex Riley and Steve Yusko
Edited by Derek Lampe

Long before "The Straight Talk Express" or "Change You Can Believe In" or the War on Terrorism or the economic crisis, Neil Howe and other generational experts predicted the youth vote was going to flex its political power this year.

"It's become common wisdom that the youth vote doesn't show up," Howe said. "That's not true. It's just that recent generations haven't."

The youth vote isn't just a static block of 18- to 29-year-olds. It is a series of generations, and the newest is the Millennials, also known as Generation Y.

Millennials represent a whole new civic and political attitude. They were born from the late ‘70s and early ‘80s to the late ‘90s, although there is no consensus on the beginning and end dates. While Generation X before them was cynical and disengaged, Howe said, Millennials are upbeat, progressive and trusting of institutions.

So for generational experts it's no surprise some political pundits predict record turnouts among 18- to 29-year-olds in this presidential election. Or that about 20 million young people voted in 2004, 25 percent more than in 2000. Or that young-voter turnout jumped by 103 percent - 42 percent in South Carolina - in the 2008 presidential primaries and caucuses, according to Rock the Vote, a nonpartisan group dedicated to registering young voters.

"The impact of the Millennial vote is about to be felt in a big way on November 4," Michael Hais and Morley Winograd, co-authors of "Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics," wrote in an e-mail.

A ‘civic' generation

Howe said Millennials are a "civic" generation whose members are likely to remain politically active throughout their lifetimes. They were raised in an era of child protection and family values, said Howe, co-author of multiple books about generations.

Jane Eisner, author of "Taking Back the Vote," a guide for involving youth in politics, said Millennials don't embrace conflict or see the political process as the enemy.

And Hais and Winograd said Millennials are the most ethnically diverse generation in history whose members relish community service and political institutions.

"Active participation and involvement is ingrained in Millennials," Hais and Winograd wrote. "It is what they do. It is who they are."

Candidates, issues drive voters to the polls

If the Millennials are primed for civic involvement, the current political climate has only increased excitement among young people. President George W. Bush has one of the lowest approval ratings in history, and this election features two young, dynamic figures in Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate, and Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate.

The U.S. economy is in a crisis, and the country continues to fight costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those were the top two issues among all 18- to 29-year-olds, according to a September survey by Rock the Vote.

"For once in a lifetime, young people and their parents might be moved to the polls by the same issues," said Rock the Vote spokeswoman Stephanie Young.

Historically, young voters have leaned toward Democrats, and Millennials show those same tendencies, Hais and Winograd said. But for this election, political enthusiasm has increased among young people in both parties.

Both Obama and the Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, have promised change, and the two campaigns have reached out to young voters in an unprecedented manner. Through Facebook, MySpace, YouTube and Twitter - all widely used by Generation Y - the candidates, but particularly Obama, have pushed their message.

Will young people show up on Tuesday?

Most experts carefully qualify their youth vote predictions, but some are anticipate a large turnout. Lorenzo Morris, chairman of Howard University's political science department, said a 50 percent youth-voter turnout is easily within reach. Michael McDonald, a professor and voter participation expert at George Mason University, said this would be a high-turnout election across all age groups and that he would be impressed if the increase in young voters exceeds the increases in other demographics.

Even in a state like South Carolina, dominated by one party, Blease Graham said the vote could be strong among both young Democrats and Republicans. And while Graham, a University of South Carolina political science professor, said he would be flabbergasted if Obama won South Carolina, he said the youth vote could make it closer.

But not everyone is convinced given recent history.

"We still have an electoral process that is cumbersome - especially for young people," Eisner said.

Young voters tend to be more nomadic, and absentee voting can be a pain.

Fifty-five percent of 18- to 29-year-olds turned out in 1972, the first election after the voting age was lowered to 18. Since then, young-voter turnout has decreased by 6 percentage points, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

Lisa Schiffren, a speechwriter for former Vice President Dan Quayle and contributor to the National Review Online's "The Corner" blog, said the youth vote is always overhyped, although turnout could increase slightly this election. The McCain campaign should have reached out more to young people, Schiffren said. But, she said, "When you do the math, the youth vote isn't so crucial, especially if you have scarce campaign dollars."

An Oct. 22 Gallup poll showed Obama holding a 28 percentage-point lead among 18- to 29-year-olds, but with no strong evidence for a larger than usual youth vote. Even if young voters come out in force, Gallup said, it would affect candidates' support by only a percentage point or two.

Dave Woodard, the faculty adviser for Clemson University's College Republicans, agreed there is more excitement. But he wondered why young voters would show up now if they didn't in 1972 when the threat of being drafted was very real.

"If you think the youth vote is going to make a difference, dream on," he said.

The next political ‘powerhouse'

Looking at the youth vote from only post-1972 has helped create the appearance of apathy, Hais and Winograd said. Politically disengaged Gen-Xers filled out the bulk of the youth vote in those years, they said, and youth-voter turnout bottomed out in 1996 at 40 percent, when Generation X made up nearly all the 18- to 29-year-old category.

And while the youth vote has been elusive in recent elections, it wasn't always so. A young G.I. Generation voted in the 1930s at the same rate as its elders, Howe said. America's last "civic" generation, went on to a dominant political career that lasted 50 years.

Generational experts predict a similar outcome for the Millennials - both as voters and politicians.

"This could be the next powerhouse political generation," Howe said.